hypersoniq's Blog

Back to the drawing board after mixed (mostly losing) results with the previous system in the pick 4.

Difference since 2016... Took some math courses at an online university (algebra with trigonometry, calculus, statistics, discrete math, and currently going through statistical inference). Going for a bucket list bachelor's degree in computer science. Will take 6 more years... hanging on to a 3.3GPA and lerning a great deal. This is my last math class that the school even offers, so it's all cores and "fluff" from here on out... 9 more classes after this one to an Associate's Degree.

Also dabbling more seriously in programming. 1 class in Python and 2 in Java so far. Also learning Android programming with being awarded a Google scholarship to attend Udacity for the Android Basics nanodegree, which I have recently completed. Currently in a free class for Machine Learning with Python and Pytorch.

plus full time work, plus 5 grandkids (and one on the way)... no rest. AND just hit 50 (was not looking forward to that one).

Next up is a look at the numbers that follow other numbers, basically going to take each number and count the number of times that each of 0-9 followed it. Then, convert these sums into a probability distribution and see what I can do with that. After studying such fun stuff as linear/logistic regression, batch gradient descent, bayesian inference and deep/shallow learning, I think that help might be available but we must figure out what question to have the neural network answer... Rather than have it directly predict a umber, it might be best to have it predict the results of some statistic of the number, like the one described above.

My database for pickN in PA for the 2-3-4&5 are about 18 months behind, so that will be the first phase... And after knowing all this new stuff, there still seems no better tool to visualize what is going on with the lottery than a spreadsheet. (Although I have been quite intrigued by what the language R is capable of, will check out some population stats when I get the database caught up... too bad lazy PA does not have a decent API to get the latest draws from.

So in the never ending quest for a winning system, it's always ending up back to excel.

The challenge for the new system was to keep it cheap enough to stick with, hence the new strategy

1. Alternate between Pick 3 Pick 4 and Pick 5 (different game per week)
2. Play one straight and one box for day and night
3. only play on days I work (4 per week)

Given these parameters, play on the pick 3 and pick 4 is $2 per day and $4 when dealing with a pick5 week.

As for the system, something stupid and simple that didn't even backtest all that well

the ABStraction system (coincidental at best)

Using a simple ABS() formula in excel, subtraction can be commutative like addition. I developed a "mask" that you simply subtract from the last number drawn in each position and play the resulting number. Updating the mask based on backtests means you can just keep a copy of the mask and not need to be constantly at the spreadsheet, weekly updating suffices.

for example

last PA pick3 mid-day was 8-8-3

MASK is 8-7-3

8-8=0     8-7=1   8-8=0, play 0-1-0 if there was a higher top number it doesn't matter, just use ABS() on the answer to remove negative numbers.

for example tonight's pick3

last pick 3 was 0-5-0

Mask is 7-9-4

ABS(0-7) = 7

ABS(5-9) = 4

ABS(0-4) = 4

7-4-4 for tonight.

play should be 0-1-0 for tomorrow mid day... not playing because it's a day off so... cheap system!

results thus far

Pick3   3 box hits ($40 each) / 0 straight hits

Pick4   0 box hits / 0 straight hits

pick5   1 box hit (2 pairs, $1,700) / 0 straight hits

 

So with an annual projected cost of $560, the $1,820 earned so far makes it a personal success, even subtracting the $425 due in taxes on the pick 5 hit... it just doesn't backtest favorably. 

The only system I ever had that had consistent positive results was erased years ago when Microsoft chose to wipe out VB compatibility between 6 and .net  Now they offer a community edition of visual studio for free, including fully functional VB and C#, so maybe I can brush up on programming and revisit the idea, but for now this system is cheap and entertaining.

results may vary, entertainment value only... but you never know.

the MASK values were obtained through brute force backtesting, trying 0 thru 9 in place on excel, so anyone with excel can recreate the sheet.

for each position, you get a mask number therefore it's not good for trapping or gathering groups of numbers, and on most days it's almost a guide for what NOT to play, but it's cheap and so far avoiding straight hits, it does well for boxes, particularly on the pick 3. It does favor some numbers, but none are out of play, so it won't help reduce either.

Still fiddling with the spreadsheets, but thought I would try a test fire number for the week in PA

1-1-8-1 on the pick 4 (thursday eve thru tomorrow mid)

frustrating on 9/6 when 1-8-2-1 came out, but quite a slap in the face today when they drew 1-1-8-5...

3 numbers IN POSITION, actually played the ticket, fourth number off... I am remembering why i usually stick to "paper play"...

oh well, got tonight and tomorrow mid yet, then back to paper, obviously system not quite ready for prime time.

same system likes 5-1-4-0 for next week... gotta decide if it's worth the couple bucks to ride the rollercoaster again or just re-tool the sheet and watch from the sidelines again.

Sometimes it gets discouraging to envision what you want to do on a sheet of paper, craft it into an excel spreadsheet and realize the information that you wanted is indeed presented correctly BUT provides no help whatsoever when the numbers are drawn...

I knew straight statistics wouldn't be the holy grail, otherwise everybody would win.

So what I have left is my original design goals...

1. treat each digit separately (pick 3/4)
2. make a unique pick for each draw
3. make ONLY one pick for each draw

Sometimes you get tempted to toy with settings to "enhance" backtest results, knowing that it won't propagate forward... I just saved myself quite a significant amount of time by realizing and stopping this in my current endeavor.

Since the project began, i had managed to avoid any straight results, but picked up $440 in box results because it was cheap to add them, but in the end, box was wrong... but funded the system thus far. 

So i sit with my excel skills getting slowly sharper, but positive results still missing. BUT unlike last time, i refuse to allow myself to drop my experimentation and computer skills due to lack of results. The current framework is good, I must wait for the next idea or inspiration, but the framework is there... updating draws until then.

So, i believe the statistics are a part of the puzzle, but after exhaustive attempts, I now know they are not the ONLY part...

but what next?

Coming up with spreadsheet ideas, sometimes you have a ton at once, sometimes not a new idea for weeks... currently in the latter.

Updating the draw databases I have created without even pulling a pick until after the draw... wanting to try a few games, but heeding the backtest results that are red flagging the idea of live play at this time. Thinking about taking advantage of the writer's block and learning something useful like Java programming... also cheap! maybe helpful with this project as well...

Given the breakdown of my current project, picking 1 in 10 consecutive times... there is a standard 10% chance in a random pick, and by studying history I can only get near 12%. time to keep looking...

So, what are the metrics required for building a system? how could you use past draw information to pick future draws?

Fundamental questions to be sure, and considering what we try to do everyday, ones that need some attention.

I have come up with 4 tools to add to a draw profile, for each position in a pick3...

1.Count... show how many times 0-9 followed the currently drawn number throughout your selected draw history.

2.Day Of Month... based on the 1-31 range, shows 0-9 for the last draw on THAT day of the month, a filter... a subset of the data above.

3.Day Of Week... based on 1-7, so i can see what followed a 9, for example, every time a 9 came up on a tuesday...

4.Simple follower... if a 6 is picked tonight, and a 3 was picked last night, how do 0-9 look when the 3-6 chain is previously drawn.

 

now the question... which is more important? the one with the highest count? the one with the highest opportunities for a match?

I am developing a backtest that will check all 4 tools against the draw history to see if any could have been used for a winning system... found some glimmer of hope on the midday drawing using the day of the month, using just the MAX count it would have paid 5 straight hits in 2,200 draws, which on $1 st. would leave a profit of $300, currently... 

So much to do before even paper testing can begin...

So, what tools are in your system? (Notice I was not counting Even/Odd, Hot/Cold, Low/High... filters not used in a system where the end result is just one number).

Haven't had a post in the forum since 2009!!!

Haven't run an excel spreadsheet since then either... anyone having any luck?

currently getting acquainted with the commands in excel 2007 (old laptop)... looking to finally code draw profile info that will now be possible with the COUNTIFS() function... so far just a concept, not even paper play yet... the brief summary

1. reduce pick 3 to consecutive games of 1 in 10
2. fine tune it
3. scale it up to QUINTO (skipping the pick4)

one QP per PB draw is dull, at least my spreadsheet pick got a few matches and at least had numbers NEAR the drawn ones...

I have had massive amounts of downtime getting used to my new laptop, windows vista and office 2007. And to make things worse I finally took the plunge and moved to the newest Visual Studio so I am back to square one.

Hope your year is a good one, and I hope I can dream up of a new system with all the time off I have been given thanks to the PB matrix change.

 

I have been contemplating moving LRS to the PA cash 5 to pass the time...

While still playing along with my one LRS PB pick per draw, I decided that since time is running out on the current PB matrix I needed something new.

Enter VIZ (no acronym this time, just shortened Visualization). The project has several goals, all hinged around announcer numbers. Sometimes my terms don't gel with the greater community, so to clarify my take on the following...

ANNOUNCER- for a number in the most recent draw, this is a list of all other numbers that came up immediately after everytime that number was drawn.

DUE- or more accurately D.U.E.... based on position, the last number drawn generates a list of announcers and I want to count how many times the announcer list numbers went (D)own, went (U)p, or were (E)qual.

O/E - Odd or Even, applied to the same list of announcers.

Offset Announcers - the heart of VIZ, a D-1 announcer gathers data about the last draw and what has come up in thenext draw after that number, a D-2 looks at the number 2 draws ago and it's data is what came up 2 draws after it... my current sheet goes to D-13. (untested, D-8 caught 2+1 then flopped).

The main problem with VIZ is that I must fill the positional data in manually (or cut-n-paste), which makes it highly impractical for a daily game.

The main hypothesis is range reduction can be achieved by correlating announcer data via offsets... more than one source for my data about what might be next. What do these offset vectors have in common?

my data gathered includes a D.U.E. count, an O/E count and a RANGE (Highest observed and Lowest observed) DUE is ALWAYS based on the last draw. the purpose of DUE is to cut the observed range down... does the data indicate that the number will be down or up from the last draws number in that position? this could effectively help cut the observed range down some.

 

I am feeling the pressure of the looming new matrix, I went from D-8 to D-13 for this coming draw... if that doesn't work I may jump right to D-20 for saturday. Right now I am just observing the flurry of info, I extract the most common number (via the MODE function) from each position to play as a single line, but that is not always the best way... the search goes on.

So that's what I have been up to since learning of the PB matrix change coming... other than that I am out of ideas. (I guess over the years I chased some far fetched systems...) So from now until the matrix change, I am doubling my lottery spending by playing the LRS line AND the VIZ line. (going against my philosophy of more than one ticket and all that... so what, 2009 will only cost me $208 TOTAL for 1 QP with the power play so I will splurge a little).

At least they will be keeping PB at $1/ticket unless you choose PP...

Tonight's PB numbers

05-34-40-43-52 + 20

my LRS ticket

(05)-33-37-(43)-46 +13

a brand new system I am working on (temporarily dubbed "Viz")

04-22-30-37-(43) +18

LRS caught the WB21 and RB9 last night with 2x multiplier. Been awhile since my LRS ticket was anything more than just the usual donation to older pennsylvanians :-)

In addition to the crazy and as-yet futile attempts to win the powerball with a one-line system, I also enjoy trying to split water into hydrogen and oxygen for eventual use as fuel. Sure electrolysis has been around since Faraday (1800's) but it's just not efficient...

I play around with off-the-wall theories that combine the resonance work of my favorite inventor (Nikola Tesla) with elements of molecular string theory in an effort to find and exploit the resonant frequecy of the O-H covalent bond in a water molecule so that water may be split with much less initial energy than brute force electrolysis requires.

So far I have about 3 years of research into just forming the hypothesis, now it's time to build test sets and try to find that elusive frequency and the rig that will make it viable. But I must learn how to program my microcontroller in 'C', already proving to be a challenge! WHY must everything interesting have such a huge learning curve? Maybe I'm just stupid. BUT like the lottery quest, apparently noone has done that either.

I just may have better luck at winning the powerball :-(

But it looks at least possible on paper.

If I ever win, I'm buying my own LAB.

I still need to have that one PB ticket for each draw. Still sticking with my lackluster LRS system because it's easy to maintain and generates just one line.

I think I need to get back to the basics and weigh the picks LRS gives with the stats I used to keep for the game.

who knows, anything's possible (just not probable)

but the $2 for a powerplay ticket twice a week helps get me through the mundane work week (because potentially every wednesday and friday could be my last day working for someone else ;-)   )

Been busy.

Scrapped the pick3/4 systems (again)

revamped LRS for powerball (again)

NO wins of substance to report (again)

I have been busy toying around with HTML skills using a free webhost. The end result (NOT lottery related) is http://www.freebieadvisor.info

Hoping to add more and make it a sort-of online resume for web authoring skills, but for now it's just fun! Feel free to comment on the design if you happen to venture there... My FIRST Cascading Style Sheet page ever, hoping the navigation is good (strictly left column) and the text is readable. (I am keeping it un-cluttered of graphics and flash stuff). Ah, simplicity!

oh well, back to the spreadsheet for wednesday's PB draw...